Ten-Year study reveals community is the key to long-term sustainability
“Clubs with strong community identity are more resilient, more predictable, and less likely to fall into dangerous financial cycles. Sustainability is not about where you finish in the table, but who you are and who you represent.”
Niall Couper, Fair Game CEO
A LANDMARK decade-long study published today by Fair Game, the UK’s leading football think tank, reveals that the strongest and most consistent driver of financial stability in English football is a club’s community identity.
The study A 10-Year Longitudinal Study: On-Pitch Success and Merchandising Income Across the English Football Pyramid focused on 10 seasons from 2014/15 up until the 2023/24 campaign and featured 10 clubs that were chosen to represent different scales, histories, and commercial realities.
These clubs were: Liverpool, Aston Villa, Brentford, Norwich City, Millwall, Rotherham United, Wycombe Wanderers, AFC Wimbledon, Port Vale and Tranmere Rovers.
The research – the first to test the relationship between footballing success and merchandising income across the top four men’s professional divisions in England – shows that while goals, promotions and league position do generate commercial spikes, they do not create long-term financial resilience.
Instead, clubs with deep community roots are significantly more stable and far better shielded from the financial shocks caused by relegation, poor form or the loss of star players.
At the top, Liverpool and Aston Villa show how success, European football and promotion can drive major merchandise booms, but also how quickly income rises and falls with results. Brentford stand apart, proving that smart digital strategy and modern commercial structures can grow revenue beyond league position alone. Norwich City’s repeated promotions and relegations underline just how volatile performance-led income can be.
In the Championship and below, identity increasingly matters more than results. Millwall’s loyal supporter base keeps merchandise income stable despite fluctuating finishes, while Rotherham United’s figures rise and fall sharply with promotion cycles. Wycombe Wanderers and AFC Wimbledon demonstrate the power of fan ownership and community pride to sustain income through good times and bad. Meanwhile, analysis of Port Vale and Tranmere Rovers show that while success sparks sales, it is strong local connection that keeps clubs financially resilient when the highs fade.
For most clubs, structural and strategic choices, such as retail partnerships, digital presence, ownership model, purpose-led engagement, often have a greater impact on the financial bottom line than league finish.
It is clear that on-pitch performance alone cannot sustain clubs. Across the football pyramid, the most stable organisations are those that invest in identity, inclusion, and long-term community connection.
These clubs grow commercial revenue more predictably, avoid boom-and-bust cycles, and are far less vulnerable to the spiralling wage inflation that has pushed so many clubs to the brink.
Niall Couper, the CEO of Fair Game, said:
“Fair Game has long argued that the financial model of English football rewards wealth over wisdom and this is a further wake-up call for our clubs. Results matter, but creating a sense of community and a feeling of belonging matter more when it comes to long-term financial security.
“Football clubs are more than businesses. They are social institutions, anchors of identity, and powerful community engines. Yet in an era of spiralling costs, widening financial gaps, and unprecedented commercial pressures, the economic sustainability of clubs has never been more fragile.
“Clubs with strong community identity are more resilient, more predictable, and less likely to fall into dangerous financial cycles. Sustainability is not about where you finish in the table, but who you are and who you represent.
“Currently, the system rewards those who already have the most. Our findings reinforce the need for stronger cost controls, fairer revenue sharing, and a regulatory model that protects clubs who invest in community identity and responsible governance.
“In a football landscape too often shaped by short-termism, this report provides a roadmap to something more durable: a future where clubs are protected not by wealth, but by the strength of their bond with the people they represent.”
To ensure the findings were credible, comparable, and replicable, a multi-stage methodology was applied which combined financial analysis, performance data modelling, and regression techniques commonly used in sports economics.
This analysis provides fresh, data-driven evidence that identity itself is a form of financial sustainability, and that clubs grounded in their communities are best placed to survive and thrive.
For clubs planning budgets, for regulators designing cost controls, and for fans demanding a fairer system, the evidence presented here offers a meaningful step forward. It shows that sustainability is not simply a function of league position, but of who a club is and how deeply its identity is rooted in its community.
The full report is available here.
Case studies
Liverpool (Premier League)
Liverpool show how success sells, but also how fragile the system is. Title races, Champions League nights and star players drove massive merchandise booms, with every climb up the table delivering millions more in sales. But the data shows this model fuels inequality, rewarding those already at the top while doing little to create long-term financial stability across the wider game.
Aston Villa (Premier League)
Aston Villa’s decade tells a boom-and-bust story. Relegation caused merchandise sales to fall sharply, while promotion and European qualification triggered big spikes. The club’s historic fanbase means success quickly reactivates spending, but the swings are steep, showing how even major clubs remain exposed when finances rise and fall with results alone.
Brentford (Premier League)
Brentford break the mould. Merchandise income grew rapidly even before promotion, driven by smart digital retail and modern commercial strategy rather than league position. While reaching the Premier League delivered a huge one-off jump, the longer-term lesson is clear: structure, innovation and fan engagement can matter more than finishing place.
Norwich City (Championship / Premier League)
Norwich City are the ultimate yo-yo club, and their merchandise figures follow suit. Every promotion to the Premier League delivered huge retail spikes, only for relegation to quickly drag income back down. The pattern highlights just how volatile performance-led income can be, even for well-run clubs with loyal local support.
Millwall (Championship)
Millwall prove you don’t need silverware to stay solvent. Despite big swings in league position, the club’s merchandise income stayed relatively steady over a decade. Loyal supporters kept buying regardless of form, with season-ticket holders driving sales – a powerful example of how identity can steady finances when results fluctuate.
Rotherham United (Championship / League One)
Rotherham United show how fine the margins are outside the top flight. Promotions sparked clear merchandise surges, while relegations quickly pulled sales back again. Cup runs brought brief boosts, but nothing lasted. For clubs like Rotherham, success delivers short-term highs – not long-term financial security.
Wycombe Wanderers (League One)
Wycombe Wanderers highlight the power of identity over league position. During their fan-ownership era, merchandise income rose in promotion seasons and held up even when results dipped. Wembley play-off runs triggered major retail spikes, showing how belief, togetherness and clear club culture can drive income beyond expectations.
AFC Wimbledon (League One / League Two)
At AFC Wimbledon, belonging beats league position. The fan-owned club grew merchandise income even through tough seasons, with supporters buying as an act of loyalty. The return to Plough Lane produced one of the biggest retail uplifts in the study – driven by community pride, not promotion or goals.
Port Vale (League One / League Two)
Port Vale’s numbers tell a familiar lower-league story: when the club goes up, the tills ring. Promotion delivered a sharp jump in shirt sales, while difficult seasons flattened demand. The data shows how success helps, but also how fragile finances remain without deeper commercial foundations.
Tranmere Rovers (League Two)
Tranmere Rovers show how lower-league success hits hardest when fans are fully engaged. Play-off runs and promotion pushes drove big spikes in merchandise sales, fuelled by goals and attacking football. Crucially, strong local identity helped sustain higher income between peaks, making Tranmere one of the clearest examples of performance and community working together.
